Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.043676 0.050266 0.057135 0.064797 0.073076 0.081721 0.091403
2025-04-13 0.031930 0.041274 0.051683 0.063986 0.077985 0.093282 0.111128
2025-04-20 0.027222 0.038620 0.051987 0.068463 0.087885 0.109746 0.135913
2025-04-27 0.021093 0.033086 0.047922 0.066978 0.090207 0.117067 0.149951
2025-05-04 0.018125 0.030921 0.047452 0.069371 0.096759 0.129048 0.169209
2025-05-11 0.014670 0.027526 0.044940 0.068814 0.099404 0.136162 0.182589
2025-05-18 0.012776 0.026002 0.044636 0.070866 0.105131 0.146901 0.200258
2025-05-25 0.011042 0.024431 0.044049 0.072376 0.110055 0.156596 0.216661
2025-06-01 0.008654 0.021422 0.041107 0.070440 0.110321 0.160357 0.225709
2025-06-08 0.006728 0.018809 0.038446 0.068640 0.110562 0.163938 0.234429
2025-06-15 0.005904 0.018019 0.038447 0.070519 0.115661 0.173679 0.250838
2025-06-22 0.005004 0.016907 0.037819 0.071403 0.119362 0.181609 0.264995
2025-06-29 0.004440 0.016463 0.038368 0.074233 0.126075 0.193909 0.285319
2025-07-06 0.003442 0.014850 0.036847 0.073919 0.128466 0.200682 0.298826
2025-07-13 0.003315 0.015250 0.038800 0.078944 0.138418 0.217510 0.325344
2025-07-20 0.002398 0.013388 0.036567 0.077348 0.138908 0.221768 0.335711
2025-07-27 0.002081 0.013039 0.037031 0.079972 0.145435 0.234102 0.356573
2025-08-03 0.001524 0.011735 0.035547 0.079365 0.147221 0.240039 0.369131
2025-08-10 0.001284 0.011363 0.035826 0.081609 0.153174 0.251636 0.389131
2025-08-17 0.001040 0.010854 0.035769 0.083258 0.158240 0.262041 0.407609
2025-08-24 0.000644 0.009401 0.033563 0.081143 0.157585 0.264529 0.415593
2025-08-31 0.000367 0.008123 0.031533 0.079175 0.157037 0.267090 0.423624
2025-09-07 0.000285 0.007879 0.031804 0.081229 0.162629 0.278201 0.443088